Ka Wai Ola - Office of Hawaiian Affairs, Volume 28, Number 7, 1 Iulai 2010 — Native Hawaiians ean make a difference in elections [ARTICLE+ILLUSTRATION]

Native Hawaiians ean make a difference in elections

1st Congressional District special election analysis

By Emerald Kapi'olani Adams and Stanton Enomoto The upcoming eleehon season promises to be a dynamic one with important races for Congress, governor, the Legislature, county councils, the school board and the Office of Hawaiian Affairs. All of the candidates in these races have the potential to affect policies and programs for Native Hawaiians and therefore it is important for all Native Hawaiians, wherever they may reside, to register and participate in the September primary and November general elections. The recent special election to fill the remainder of former Congressman Neil Abercrombie's term provided some insights into the communities of the lst Congressional District and some implications for Native Hawaiians. According to the 2000 Census, there were approximately 607,000 people residing within the current boundary of the lst Congressional District. Of that amount, nearly 78,000 (12.8 percent) self-identified as Native Hawaiian. The population of Native Hawaiians residing in eaeh of the voting districts ranged between 1,100 to 4,800. The districts with more than 4,000 Native Hawaiians were in Mililani, 'Aiea, Pearl City, 'Ewa, Hono'uli'uli, Kalihi and Punehhowl and in eaeh of these districts Native Hawaiians represented between 13 percent and 19 percent of the total population. The highest density of Native Hawaiians was in the Punehhowl district, in large part because of the state Department of Hawaiian Home Land communities of Papakōlea and Kalāwahine. A comparison between the communities with a high Native Hawaiian population and voter turnout yields mixedresults. Some communities, such as Mililani, 'Aiea, Pearl City and Punehhowl had a high voter turnout; while others such as Kalihi, 'Ewa Beach and Hono'uli'uli had a low voter turnout. A closer look at the various districts, their level of voter participation and how they voted provides some interesting insights. The districts with the highest voter turnout were clustered in East Honolulu (see Table 1), 'Aiea, Pearl City, Mililani and Mānoa, where 60 percent to 64 percent of the registered voters participated. In actual votes cast, these communities provided nearly 72,000 votes (42 percent) of the total votes in the May election. Conversely, the lowest voter turnout was in 'Ewa

(see Table 2), Waipahu, Kalihi, Iwilei, Āliamanu, Kaka'ako and Waikīkl, where only 40 percent to 45 percent of registered voters participated. This equates to about 41,000 votes (24 percent) of the overall vote count. It is worth noting that if the communities with the lowest voter turnout increased their participation to over 60 percent, an estimated 20,000 additional votes could have been cast, potentially

changing the outcome of the race. Another dimension to the special election is the potential affect of Native Hawaiians. While there is no direct data on the race and ethnicity of registered voters, Native Hawaiians have a track record of relatively high voter registration and turnout in the past. In 1980 and 1990, the Hawai'i state Office of Elections reported approximately 78 percent and 83 percent of all Native Hawaiian

adults over 18 years of age were registered to vote. During this same period, nearly three-quarters of registered Native Hawaiian voters participated in elections. The all mail-in special election in May was considered a success by many insofar as 54 percent of the registered voters participated. This is quite high considering past special elections or all mail-in elections. The speeial election in 2003 for

the 2nd Congressional District resulted in only 13 percent participation. The 2009 special mailin elections

for Honolulu City Council Districts III and IV resulted in 45 percent and 40 percent participation, respectively The total number of registered voters in the lst Congressional District was 317,337. Of this amount, 171,417 voters(53.9percent)participated in the May special election. The top three candidates, Republican Charles Djou and Democrats Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case, received nearly

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TABLE 1 - DISTRICTS WITH HIGHEST V0TER TURN0UT DISTRICT NO. - NAME T0TAL REGISTERED % DJOU HANABUSA CASE V0TES V0TERS TURN0UT 18 - KAHALA, 'ĀINA HINA, KULI'OU'OU 9,486 14,849 63.9 4,341 2,332 2,660 19 - KAIMUKŪ KĀHALA, WAI'ALAE 9,697 15,183 63.9 4,204 2,425 2,934 17 - HAWAI'I KAI, KALAMA VALLEY 10,553 16,745 63.0 5,139 2,466 2,809 36 - PEARL CITY, PACIFIC PALISADES 7,510 12,472 60.2 2,659 2,773 1,952 33 - HĀLAWA, 'AIEA, PEARLRIDGE 7,188 12,015 59.8 2,746 2,394 1,936 38 - MILILANI, MILILANI MAUKA 8,480 17,501 59.7 2,659 2,998 2,693 24 - MĀNOA 8,548 14,362 59.5 2,742 2,423 3,221 37 - MILILANI, WAIPI'O 8,480 14,275 59.4 3,572 2,690 2,094 ĪŌĪĀL 71,914 117,402 = 28,062 20,501 20,299 TABLE 2 - DISTRICTS WITH L0WEST V0TER TURN0UT DISTRICT NO. - NAME T0TAL REGISTERED % DJOU HANABUSA CASE V0TES V0TERS TURN0UT 43 - 'EWA BEACH, WEST L00H 7,358 16,375 44.9 3,524 2,049 1,626 32 - WAIMALU, ĀLIAMANU, AIRP0RT 5,780 13,167 43.9 2,315 1,861 1,471 23 - WAIKĪKĪ, ALA MOANA, KAKA'AKO 5,424 12,183 44.5 2,394 1,286 1,560 28 - IWILEI, DOWNTOWN MAKIKI 5,243 11,558 45.4 2,090 1,500 1,443 35 - WAIPAHU, CRESTVIEW 5,102 11,384 44.8 1,652 1,960 1,375 42 - WAIPAHU, HONO'ULI'ULI, 'EWA 4,085 9,875 41.4 1,599 1,418 979 30 - MOANALUA, KALIHI VALLEY, 'ĀLEWA 4,402 9,676 45.5 1,515 1,678 1,109 29 - KALIHI, SAND ISLAND 3,566 8,914 40.0 1,139 1,440 881 ĪŌĪĀL 40,960 93,132 = 16,228 13,192 10,444 Source: Hawai'i State Office offlections

98 percent of the total votes cast. Charles Djou won the eleehon with 67,610 votes (39.4 percent). Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case had 52,802 votes (30.8 percent) and 47,391 votes (27.6 percent), respectively. In review of the candidates, the districts where Charles Djou had the highest percentage of the votes were Hawai'i Kai, Kāhala, 'Āina Haina and Mililani. In these districts he received between 44 percent and 49 percent of the total votes cast. Colleen Hanabusa was strongest in Kalihi, Moanalua and Waipahu, where she won 38 percent to 40 percent of the votes cast. The only district won by Ed Case was Mānoa, where he had nearly 38 percent of the votes. He also had strong support in East Honolulu, Mililani and Makiki. While the communities that supported the winning candidates may not be surprising, as East Honolulu tends to be more Republican and Kalihi and Waipahu are more Democratic, what is interesting to note is the role of voter turnout on the outcome of a race. The communities with the highest voter turnout supported Charles Djou while those with low turnout supported Colleen Hanabusa. One exception was in 'Ewa, whieh had less than 45 percent turnout and supported Charles Djou with 5,123 votes. It is speculative to attribute either high or low voter turnout in these districts to Native Hawaiians. However, it remains noteworthy that eommunities with high voter registration and participation ean affect an election outcome. It is further noteworthy that Native Hawaiians have historically had a high level of civic engagement and fulfilled their kuleana to participate in elections. Voter registration information ean be obtained from the state Office of Elections at 808- 453-VOTE (8683) or toll-free at 800-442- VOTE (8683). Registration forms and other information may also be obtained online at http://hawaii.gov/elections. The registration deadlines are Aug. 19 for the 2010 primary election and Oct. 4 for the 2010 general election. ■ Emeraīd Kapi'oīani Adams is OHA 's Lead Researcher in the Demography Program. Stanton Enomoio is OHA's Chief Operating Ojficer.